Oil prices fall again as Nigeria’s fiscal plan is further threatened

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, August 19, 2025, over the possibility that the meeting between the United States (US), Russia, and Ukraine could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian crude, leading to an increase in the supply of the commodity.

According to data from oilprice.com, Brent crude was down by 1.01% or 67 cents to trade at $65.93 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down by 1.23% or 78 cents to trade at $62.64 per barrel at the time of writing this report on Tuesday afternoon.

This could further put Nigeria’s fiscal plan, especially for 2025, in serious jeopardy, as this will worsen the budget deficit of the Federal Government.

The US President, Donald Trump, had, after the meeting with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European allies, announced in a social media post that he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump said arrangements were being made for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy, which could lead to a trilateral summit involving all three leaders.

The US President urged Putin and Zelenskiy to show some “flexibility” as he accelerates his efforts to end the war in Ukraine and encourages the two leaders to hold a bilateral summit.

Hopes of possible end to the war

According to Reuters, Commerzbank analysts are predicting that with Monday’s meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and several European leaders, an end to the war could be a possibility.

“Following yesterday’s meeting between Trump, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, and several European heads of state and government, there appears to be movement in the negotiations, fueling renewed hopes for an upcoming end to the war. As a result, oil prices are falling again today,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank, said Trump’s softened stance on secondary sanctions targeting importers of Russian oil had reduced the risk of global supply disruptions, easing geopolitical tensions slightly.

There were reports that China has boosted imports of Russia’s flagship Urals crude, as refiners buy additional volumes of discounted oil, while India is hesitant amid U.S. threats over its purchases of Russian oil.

China is the top buyer of Russian crude, but most of its imports consist of the ESPO grade shipped from Russia’s port of Kozmino in the Far East.

Urals, on the other hand, is being shipped from the ports in western Russia to India, and China hasn’t imported much of the grade due to higher shipping costs and longer voyages.

However, with the hiked U.S. tariffs on India over its imports of Russian crude, trade flows have started to shift, and China and Russia are winning in the new Urals trade, at the expense of India.

Zelenskiy described his talks with Trump as “very good” and noted discussions about potential U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump confirmed the U.S. would provide such guarantees, though the extent of support remains unclear.

What you should know

Nairametrics had earlier reported that Nigeria’s fiscal stability faces renewed pressure as global oil prices fall and crude production continues to trail official targets, heightening the risk of a wider budget deficit and higher borrowing needs.

Brent crude has been sliding in recent weeks, trading below the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel. The decline is driven by weaker global demand expectations and geopolitical tensions that have clouded the energy market outlook.

On the domestic front, crude oil output has improved to an average of about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year.

Although this represents an improvement over last year’s figure, it still falls short of the 2025 budget target of 1.78 million bpd target in the budget.

Oil prices fall again as Nigeria’s fiscal plan is further threatened - Nairametrics