NGX market cap crosses N85tn as investors eye Q2 earnings

The Nigerian Exchange gained N22.14tn in market capitalisation in H1 2025, pushing its valuation to N85.46tn, driven by investor confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions, writes TEMITOPE AINA

The Nigerian Exchange Limited continued its bullish trajectory in the first half of 2025, recording a N22.14tn gain in market capitalisation as investor confidence strengthened amid macroeconomic conditions and corporate performance.

Market capitalisation rose from N62.92tn on January 2 to N85.46tn as of July 28, representing a growth of 35.78 per cent. Over the same period, the All-Share Index increased from 103,180.14 points to 135,166.51 points, delivering a year-to-date return of 31.02 per cent to investors.

Monthly performance

According to market data, the Exchange had earlier recorded a capitalisation of N76.34tn as of July 4, which marked a N13.42tn increase within six months. However, renewed buy-side activity and bullish sentiment pushed the market closer to the N80tn threshold in the following week.

Monthly performance data showed that the market opened the year strongly, with capitalisation rising to N64.79tn and the ASI at 104,630.30 points by February 3.

February ended with capitalisation at N67.19tn and the index at 107,821.39 points. The first quarter, however, closed on a more subdued note, with market capitalisation retreating to N66.26tn and the index settling at 105,660.64 points on March 28.

Despite initial volatility, the market demonstrated resilience in the second quarter. By April 30, market capitalisation stood at N66.50tn and remained relatively stable into early May, posting N66.65tn on May 2. A rally began in late May, driving market capitalisation to N70.51tn and the All-Share Index to 111,818.08 points as of May 29. The upward trend continued into June, with the market closing at N75.95tn and 119,978.57 points on June 30. The momentum extended into July, as the index rose to 120,339.90 points and capitalisation increased to N76.18tn on July 2, N80.14tn on July 14, N81.67tn on July 16, and N83.24tn on July 18 and now on N85.46tn on July 28.

Previous week’s market performance

The Nigerian stock market recorded a significant surge this week, gaining N1.81tn as investor confidence was bolstered by strong corporate earnings and sustained interest in heavyweight stocks, particularly in the banking and consumer goods sectors.

According to data from the Nigerian Exchange, a total turnover of 3.691 billion shares worth N112.261bn in 138,250 deals was traded this week. This contrasts sharply with the previous week’s volume of 17.498 billion shares valued at N500.762bn exchanged in 142,082 deals, reflecting a more focused but quality-driven market activity.

The financial services industry led the trading volume chart with 2.127 billion shares valued at N47.298bn traded in 57,121 deals, contributing 57.62 per cent and 42.13 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. This was followed by the agriculture sector, which recorded a turnover of 273.694 million shares worth N12.872bn in 11,284 deals, while the oil and gas sector came third with 255.144 million shares valued at N11.808bn in 10,706 deals.

Trading in the top three equities, Access Holdings Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc and Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc, accounted for 745.391 million shares worth N19.457bn in 15,720 deals. These three stocks alone contributed 20.19 per cent and 17.33 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The All-Share Index closed the week at 134,452.93 points, marking a 2.18 per cent appreciation from the previous week. Market capitalisation rose to N85.055tn from N83.18tn, indicating a robust growth of N1.81tn in market value.

Sectoral performance was led by the industrial goods index, which gained 4.66 per cent week-on-week, largely driven by increased interest in cement stocks. Other indices also closed higher, except for the ASeM Index, which remained flat.

Market breadth improved significantly, with 60 equities appreciating compared to 49 in the previous week. Conversely, 43 equities depreciated, down from 54, while 44 stocks remained unchanged.

Top price gainers for the week included The Initiates Plc, which surged 60.82 per cent to close at N16.13, Academy Press Plc with a 33.00 per cent increase to N9.31, and Nigerian Enamelware Plc, which rose 32.68 per cent to N27.00. On the other hand, notable decliners were Secure Electronic Technology Plc, down 23.97 per cent to N0.92, Omatek Ventures Plc, which fell 23.93 per cent to N1.24, and Meyer Plc, down 21.43 per cent to N16.50.

Market analysts from Merristem Securities attributed the bullish market to sustained investor interest in key sectors, impressive corporate earnings reports, and positive market sentiment. “This strong performance was driven by heavyweight stocks in cement, consumer goods, and banking,” they said. “The industrial goods sector led sectoral gains, supported by strong earnings results.”

Afrinvest similarly expressed optimism, noting, “We expect the bullish sentiment to extend into the coming week, supported by positive investor sentiment and the anticipation of strong second quarter earnings from key players.”

Meanwhile, trading in shares of MRS Oil Nigeria Plc was suspended on Friday, 25 July 2025, by NGX in preparation for the company’s delisting, following regulatory approval.

Current market data

The Nigerian Exchange Limited opened the week on July 28  on a bullish note as renewed investor confidence drove a market capitalisation gain of N400bn. The benchmark All-Share Index increased by 713.58 points, representing a 0.53 per cent rise to close at 135,166.51.

This positive performance pushed the total market capitalisation to N85.5tn at the close of trading on Monday, reflecting strong buying interest across key sectors and sustained momentum from previous weeks. On a broader level, the All-Share Index has now advanced by 2.53 per cent over the past one week, 12.64 per cent in four weeks, and 31.32 per cent since the beginning of the year.

A total of 127 listed equities participated in trading during the session, resulting in 45 gainers and 26 losers. The market saw an uptick in investor activity, with 795,593,090 shares exchanged in 37,626 deals, amounting to a total market value of N23.23bn. This represented an 11 per cent increase in trading volume and a 51 per cent rise in number of deals, although the total turnover declined by 4 per cent when compared with the previous session.

Academy Press led the gainers’ chart after appreciating by 9.99 per cent to close at N10.24 per share. It was followed by Champion Breweries which rose by 9.98 per cent to N13.55, Tripple Gee and Company which increased by 9.97 per cent to N3.86, and May and Baker Nigeria which advanced by 9.94 per cent to close at N18.80. Other top gainers included UACN which gained 9.92 per cent and UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust which added 9.88 per cent to close at N9.45.

On the flip side, Livestock Feeds led the losers with a 10 per cent decline to close at N8.10. The Initiates Plc followed closely with a 9.98 per cent drop to N14.52. Ellah Lakes shed 9.08 per cent to close at N8.91, while Nigerian Exchange Group lost 6.02 per cent to close at N75.00. Other notable laggards were Thomas Wyatt Nigeria and Africa Prudential which declined by 5.54 per cent and 4.94 per cent respectively.

In terms of volume, Fidelity Bank recorded the highest number of traded shares with 123 million units valued at N2.58bn. FCMB followed with 68.4 million shares, while Japaul Gold and Ventures exchanged 44.1 million shares. Zenith Bank and Access Corporation also featured prominently on the volume chart with 31 million and 29 million shares traded respectively.

For value, Fidelity Bank led the pack with N2.58bn worth of shares traded, followed by Zenith Bank with N2.25bn, MTN Nigeria with N1.66bn, Okomu Oil with N1.60bn, and Dangote Cement which recorded trades worth N1.48bn.

Sector performance reflected the broader market strength, as most indices closed in the green. The Consumer Goods Index rose by 1.29 per cent, bringing its year-to-date gain to 69.49 per cent. The Insurance Index advanced by 2.54 per cent and is up 28.23 per cent year-to-date. The Industrial Index climbed by 0.64 per cent, while the Premium and Main Board Indices added 0.58 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively. The Top 30 Index also gained 0.44 per cent.

Expert voices

Additionally, analysts at Afrinvest have stated that the Nigerian equities market showed signs of resilience in the first half of 2025, rebounding from a lacklustre first quarter to post a 16.6 per cent gain in the All-Share Index by the end of June.

In its H1 2025 equities market review, Afrinvest attributed the weak start to tight monetary policy and high interest rates, which drove a shift in investor appetite towards fixed-income instruments with yields as high as 30.0 per cent.

“Market performance in Q1 was largely subdued as tight monetary conditions and elevated interest rates triggered a rotation into the fixed-income market,” the firm noted in its report.

However, the narrative shifted in the second quarter, bolstered by strong corporate earnings, attractive dividend payouts, improved FX stability, and signs of inflation easing. These positive indicators sparked renewed buy-side activity, particularly in fundamentally strong banking and telecom stocks trading at attractive valuations.

“The improved macroeconomic backdrop and resilience in corporate earnings contributed to a notable recovery in investor sentiment,” Afrinvest stated. “We observed renewed interest in value stocks across the banking and telecommunication sectors, where prices had declined to attractive entry points.”

Looking ahead, Afrinvest maintained an optimistic outlook for the rest of the year, projecting a 30.4 per cent gain in its base-case scenario for the NGX in 2025.

“We maintain our market projections, as most of the current market dynamics still align with our prognosis at the beginning of the year,” the report stated. “For FY 2025, we still project a 30.4 per cent gain in our base-case scenario, driven by expectations of a sustained pace of banking sector capital raises, fixed-income yield moderation, fiscal policy reforms and accelerated CAPEX spending, improved FX stability, and the possibility of some major corporate listings on the NGX.”

Commenting further, an Afrinvest research analyst added, “There is still significant room for capital appreciation in the equities space, especially if current policy momentum is sustained. The return of stability in the FX market, along with reforms around capital importation and infrastructure investment, provides a compelling case for equity inflows in H2.”

Afrinvest also highlighted that while risks remain, particularly around global interest rate movements and geopolitical uncertainties, Nigeria’s macro environment appears to be entering a more favourable cycle for equities.

“With the expected moderation in yields and rising investor appetite for risk assets, we believe the Nigerian equities market is positioned for an extended rally, provided current reforms are not derailed,” the report concluded.

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